Elizabeth May

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By Peter Gorrie
Environment Columnist
VICTORIA, B.C.—On a breezy Saturday afternoon, with bands of thick cloud scudding across the sun, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May walked through the downtown core with about 200 other environmentalists marking Earth Day.

After eight blocks, the small group heard a few songs and speeches at the B.C. capital’s Centennial Square. May, wearing a bright green coat and lavishing attention on her Shih Tzu, Spunky, greeted many participants with a hug. During the rally, she did a local TV interview. She’d offered to speak but, like other politicians, was advised the event was non-partisan.

So she stayed on the periphery — another day at the office as she pursues one more bid to be elected to the House of Commons.

This will be her third attempt, after she finished a strong second in a London North by-election in 2006 and then lost to Defence Minister Peter MacKay in Central Nova in 2008.

The race is clearly important for both May personally and for the Greens, who seem stalled. It’s also likely to send the strongest election day message, one way or the other, of Canadians’ depth of environmental concerns. One MP can’t transform Parliament. But if she wins, other parties might feel compelled to pay more than lip service to environment issues.

Most pundits here predict May will lose again, this time to Garry Lunn, the minister of state for sport, who has represented the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands as a Reform, Canadian Alliance or Conservative MP since 1997.

Lunn got 43 per cent of the votes cast in the 2008 general election while the Green candidate drew just 10 per cent, barely doubling the NDP.

That party’s candidate had withdrawn from the race (though his name stayed on the ballot). The Greens were expected to benefit from the NDP’s misfortune, but it was Lunn who gained six percentage points.

May and her team are, of course, enthusiastic and optimistic. She says that although she grew up in Nova Scotia, in 2008 she had underestimated the entrenched voting in the province and the MacKay family’s clout. British Columbia voters are more open to change, she says.

“It’s night and day,” says campaign manager Jonathan Dickie, who also worked for May in Central Nova.

May is renting a house in Sidney, a suburb 30 kilometres north of Victoria, and plans to buy a place after she sells residences in Ottawa and on Cape Breton Island.

She’s in the riding three weeks each month, knocking on doors and attending every event she can.

The party expected an election last fall: The delay is a bonus as she tries to become a fixture.

Saanich-Gulf Islands seems a reasonable choice for May. “It’s a very green riding,” says University of Victoria political scientist Dennis Pilon. Lunn has a poor environmental record, most recently voting against an opposition bill that would impose relatively tough targets for greenhouse-gas emissions.

But the Liberal and NDP candidates have strong environmental credentials. Unless May’s status as a party leader, and the media buzz she’ll generate — likely less than last time — give her a huge boost, Lunn could easily prevail because the opposition vote has been split.

The Gulf Islands should be fertile ground, but they constitute just 15 per cent of the eligible voters. The riding is also home to 4,000 university students, who tend to vote Green or NDP. But they’re scattered in off-campus housing and hard to entice to polling booths.

Lunn’s well-financed machine is adept at mobilizing his supporters, mainly older people who are more likely to vote in any case.

On the other hand, the Liberals are considered to have a weaker candidate this time.

May won’t speculate beyond that, but common wisdom is that if she loses, she’ll have trouble remaining leader of her fractious party.

“It’s a long shot, no question about that,” Pilon says. “But it’s unfair to say she has no hope in hell.”

peter.gorrie@sympatico.ca