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Wind Turbine Opportunities and Outlook


Wind Turbine Oppoirtunities and Outlook

Technology Innovations, Regulatory Structures, Key Market Players, and Global Growth Drivers

New wind power generation capacity additions grew from 13% of all electricity additions in 2007 to 40% in 2008, reaching 121 GW by the end of 2008, up from 94 GW the year before (29% growth). The global market for wind turbines will continue to grow through 2015 driven by new generation additions as well as replacements of smaller, older turbines with new, larger, more efficient turbines.

Drivers of growth include rising demand for electricity, pro-wind regulatory environments, advantages over other renewables, and technological innovations driving down lifetime costs of producing wind power. Still, the growth of wind power will be inhibited by persistent economic disadvantages to traditional fuels and transmission line constraints. Taking these factors into account, Pike Research expects wind turbine sales to reach $43 billion by 2015.

This Pike Research report analyzes the opportunities and challenges facing wind power – particularly turbine manufacturers – in the current economic and political climate. The report provides a deep examination of the key market factors in the wind industry, including technology issues, regulatory frameworks, access to capital and financing structures, supply chain issues, and the wind turbine competitive landscape. Key players in the wind energy business are profiled and the report also includes rich quantitative analysis including market sizing, segmentation, market share analysis of top turbine vendors, and global growth forecasts by country through 2015.

Key questions addressed:


What will be the global installed wind generation capacity by 2015?How many turbines will be required to meet wind generation capacity goals, including replacing aging fleets?What are the key industry growth drivers and challenges inhibiting growth of wind power?What are the economics of turbine manufacturing, installation, operations, and maintenance?What technological advances may drive down the lifetime costs of wind power production?What market shares do the top turbine manufacturers have of installed wind generate on capacity?
Who needs this report?


Wind turbine manufacturers (OEM and components)Wind energy developersWind turbine raw materials suppliersWind energy investorsWind energy EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) providersGovernment agencies and regulatory officialsIndustry associations



1. Executive Summary2. Market Issues2.1 Defining the Market2.1.1 Wind Power in the Context of All Electricity Sources2.1.1.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity and Additions – All Sources2.1.1.2 Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity and Additions2.2 Industry Growth Drivers2.2.1 Increasing Demand for Energy2.2.2 Legislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Subsidies2.2.3 Advantages to Other Renewables2.2.3.1 Lower Lifetime Costs than Solar and Hydroelectric2.2.3.2 Potential Forecasting Improvements2.2.3.3 Less Land Use Impacts than Solar2.2.4 Improvements to Existing Technologies2.2.4.1 Increasing Turbine Capacities2.2.4.2 Self-Erecting Towers2.2.4.3 Better Component Reliability2.3 Implementation Issues2.3.1 Economic Disadvantages to Nonrenewable Sources2.3.2 Transmission Line Constraints3. Technology Issues3.1 Wind Turbine Basics3.1.1 Towers3.1.2 Nacelles and Interior Components3.1.3 Rotors – Blades and Hub3.1.4 Wind Turbine Raw Materials3.1.5 Types3.1.5.1 Horizontal Axis vs. Vertical Axis3.1.5.2 Upwind vs. Downwind3.1.5.3 Three Blades vs. Two Blades3.1.5.4 Onshore vs. Offshore3.1.5.5 Direct Drive vs. Traditional Geared Turbine3.1.6 Marketability and Commercialization3.1.6.1 Cost3.1.6.1.1 Equipment Costs3.1.6.1.2 Balance of Station Costs3.1.6.1.3 Operations and Maintenance Costs3.1.6.1.4 Refurbishment Costs3.1.6.2 Efficiency3.1.6.3 Reliability3.1.6.4 Scalability3.1.6.5 Availability4. Market Forecasts and Demand Drivers by Region4.1 World Energy Generation by Region4.2 World Renewable Energy Generation by Region4.2.1 Wind Energy Market Forecasts – Three Scenarios4.2.2 Baseline Scenario (1) by Region4.2.3 Recession Scenario (2) by Region4.2.4 Recession Scenario (2) by Region4.2.5 Estimated Global Wind Turbine Sales – Baseline Scenario4.2.5.1 Turbine Prices Expected to Increase with Inflation4.2.5.2 Demand for Turbines Partly Driven by Replacement of Aging Fleet4.2.6 Estimated Wind Energy Production by Region – Baseline Scenario (1)4.2.7 Wind Energy Forecasts by Region and Select Countries (Baseline Scenario)4.2.7.1 North America4.2.7.1.1 United States4.2.7.1.2 Canada4.2.7.2 Latin America4.2.7.2.1 Brazil4.2.7.2.2 Mexico4.2.7.3 Europe4.2.7.3.1 Germany4.2.7.3.2 Spain4.2.7.3.3 Italy4.2.7.3.4 France4.2.7.3.5 United Kingdom (UK)4.2.7.3.6 Portugal4.2.7.3.7 Netherlands4.2.7.3.8 Denmark4.2.7.3.9 Other European Countries4.2.7.4 Asia Pacific4.2.7.4.1 China4.2.7.4.2 India4.2.7.4.3 Japan4.2.7.4.4 Australia4.2.7.4.5 Other Asia Pacific Countries4.2.7.5 Africa and Middle East5. Key Industry Players5.1 Established Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers5.1.1 ACCIONA Energia5.1.2 Enercon5.1.3 Gamesa5.1.4 GE Wind Energy5.1.5 Mitsubishi Power Systems5.1.6 Nordex Group5.1.7 REpower Systems AG5.1.8 Siemens Energy Sector5.1.9 Suzlon Energy Limited5.1.10 Vestas5.2 New Entrants and Innovators: Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers5.2.1 American Superconductor (AMSC) and Windtec (subsidiary)5.2.2 Clipper Windpower5.2.3 Eozen5.2.4 Nordic Windpower5.3 Turbine Component Manufacturers5.3.1 Bosch Rexroth5.3.2 LM Glasfiber6. Company Directory7. Acronym and Abbreviation List8. Table of Contents9. Table of Figures10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, NotesTable of Charts and FiguresGlobal Cumulative Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007Global Electricity Capacity Additions: 2007Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007Global Renewable Electricity Capacity Additions by Source: 2007Comparative Household Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries: 1999-2006Comparative Industry Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries: 1999-2006Global Installed Electricity Generating Capacity by Geographic Region: 2005-2025Electricity Generation Sources for U.S., OECD Europe and Japan: 2007Global Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Scenario: 2006-2015Global Annual Wind Power Capacity Additions by Scenario: 2007-2015Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Region, Baseline ScenarioAnnual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Recession ScenarioAnnual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Recession ScenarioCumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Region, Government Pullback ScenarioAnnual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Government Pullback ScenarioAnnual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Policy ForecastCumulative Wind power Production, Baseline Scenario: 2006-2015Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity in North America, Baseline ScenarioCumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity in Latin America, Baseline ScenarioCumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity in Top 8 European CountriesCumulative Power Generation Capacity, Top 4 Asia Pacific Countries: 2006-2015Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer: 2008American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009, Energy FundingEstimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Renewable Fuel TypeWind Speeds Can Drop SuddenlyLand Conversion from Agriculture: Wind vs. Concentrated Solar EnergyCauses of Bird FatalitiesWind Turbine Sizes Have Grown Dramatically Over 30 YearsEstimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Power Production Plant TypeDiagram of a Simple Wind TurbineEvolution of Turbine Tower DesignsDiagram of a Sample NacelleRotor Diameters Increased More than 5X Since 1980Main Raw Materials Used in Wind Turbines: Concrete and SteelOther Key Raw Materials Used in Wind TurbinesHorizontal and Vertical Axis DesignsSelect Wind Turbine PricesSample Capital Costs of an Installed Turbine: 1.5 MW ExampleTypes of Repairs on Wind Turbines (2.5 kW to 1.5 MW)U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards, Goals, and Required RenewablesSummary of Opportunities and Challenges for Wind Power and Turbine ManufacturingCost for Wind Turbine ComponentsPolicy Discount Factor by CountryRenewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Latin AmericaRenewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Top EuropeRenewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Other EuropeRenewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Top Asia Pacific CountriesRenewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Other Asia Pacific CountriesRenewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Africa and Middle EastTable of TablesCumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2006-2015New Additions of Wind Capacity by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2007-2015Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2007-2015Wind Energy Production by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2006-2015Average Wind Turbine Price per Kilowatt by Country: 2007-2015New Wind Turbines Deployed by Country: 2007-2015Replacement Wind Turbines Deployed by Country: 2007-2015Total Wind Turbines Deployed by Country: 2007-2015Wind Turbine Revenues by Country: 2007-2015Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Recession Scenario: 2006-2015New Additions of Wind Capacity by Country, Recession Scenario: 2007-2015Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Recession Scenario: 2007-2015Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Government Pullback Scenario: 2006-2015New Additions of Wind Capacity by Country, Government Pullback Scenario: 2007-2015Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Government Pullback Scenario: 2007-2015Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer: 2008

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